Here comes betting’s version of all you can eat. Super Bowl 54 betting options escalate, luring professional bettors and novices for Sunday’s showdown.
The serious wagering indicates the Kansas City Chiefs are starting to edge away from the San Francisco 49ers on the moneyline, if not the spread.
The Chiefs had edged up to a high of -128 Thursday morning at FanDuel Sportsbook and -127 at SugarHouse Sportsbook.
Other major books like DraftKings, William Hill and PointsBet sportsbooks had Kansas City in the -120 range. This was the first crack, albeit subtle, in the betting-line logjam, which has remained solitary for nearly two weeks.
The latest Super Bowl betting trends
Kansas City remains a 1.5 point-spread favorite at most books and 1.0 at William Hill Sportsbook, as the calm begins to give way to the betting storm. The over-under remains lodged in the 54-55 range across the books.
The moneyline and spread payout have gained center stage because of a line that’s near pick-em.
DraftKings Sportsbook lists San Francisco at +1.5 with a spread payout of -110 and a moneyline of + 108.
Why would a Niners’ backer take the spread? San Francisco presumably will either win outright or lose by more than one point, creating a big percentage change for a payout. The difference between -110 and +108 is nearly $20 on every $100 bet, an important matter to a big gambler.
Bettors figure the game won’t be decided by exactly one point. Only one Super Bowl ever has ended that way, when the New York Giants beat the Buffalo Bills 20-19 in 1991.
A Chiefs’ backer may be more inclined to take the spread because it’s generally -110 Kansas City on the spread and now up to -128 on the moneyline.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the 1.5 point spread at -105 and +112 on the moneyline for San Francisco. Kansas City is -115 on the spread and -128 on the moneyline, suggesting the book is looking for more San Francisco wagers.
William Hill remained consistent at Kansas City giving one point, with San Francisco becoming even money and Kansas City -120 with a victory on the moneyline. It was also the first establishment to push the over-under to 55. That number had been stuck on 53.5 and 54 for much of the past two weeks.
Super Bowl novelty bets
Over the last 10 seasons, the winner has also covered the spread. The last dog to cover without winning was the Arizona Cardinals against the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2009 at +5.5. Arizona lost the game 27-23.
Favorites and dogs have gone 3-3 in the last six Super Bowls.
Kansas City ends a 50-year drought to appear in the game, having won Super Bowl IV.
San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan would complete the first-ever father-son duo to capture a Super Bowl. His father, Mike Shanahan won with the Denver Broncos in 1997 and 1998.
The Niners would join the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers with the most Super Bowl championships, six, by winning.
Prop Bet Potpourri at NJ sportsbooks
Super Bowl prop betting has become its own entity, just like the halftime commercials. The menu becomes more fun, off the wall and diverse each year.
PointsBet Sportsbook sports one the most unique prop wagers. Who will the game MVP thank first:
- Teammates (+150)
- God (+275)
- Family (+350)
- Fans (+400)
Gambling has now entered an age where a bet is hanging on every word. All three will probably be mentioned immediately, but only one can be first.
PointsBet reported some prop market waves throughout the week. They included the under 12.5 penalties and no team going wire to wire.
The Sammy Watkins prop for under 53.5 receiving yards has been popular, along with Raheem Mostert rushing for under 82.5. yards.
PointsBet says it has reached 513 markets and has over 3,000 outcomes on the event.
Sports betting options are being added around the clock
SugarHouse Sportsbook has more than 600 wagers, reflecting a steady climb for the last two weeks.
It reports that Kansas City has 68% of the tickets to cover at -1.5, while the 49ers obtain 60% of moneyline support, preferring to take the better payout of the moneyline than a little less with the short spread.
Early signs show bettors favoring a high scoring affair, as the over-under at 54 has 70% of tickets on the over.
Patrick Mahomes has the most ‘MVP Winner’ tickets of any player, with just over 30% of total ‘MVP Winner’ bets. Mostert and Travis Kelce are the next most popular options, each receiving around 12.5% of total tickets.
Some player props are simply a nice stab. Will:
- Tyreek Hill record the game’s longest reception from scrimmage?
- The last play of the game be a quarterback kneel?
- Either team down a punt inside the 2-yard line?
- The ball ever be spotted exactly on the 50-yard line?
William Hill has props including whether more than 2.5 players will throw a pass, 9.5 players will run the ball and whether the score will ever be tied after 0-0.
Draft Kings has an interesting score-first prop. San Francisco tight end George Kittle is +900. New England tight end Travis Kelce is +700.
Will the 2-minute warning in the first half come exactly at 2:00? The no is +330.
Know before you bet
What about the actual matchup?
Kansas City led the league with 24 touchdowns of 20 or more yards and Mahomes delivered a league-high 13 deep touchdown passes, despite missing part of the year because of injury.
The reigning MVP has recaptured last year’s form and has thrived on several factors. Offensive line protection is excellent, which he supplements by scrambling and throwing on the run.
Hill is a constant deep threat and Mecole Hardman may be even faster than Hill. Tight end Travis Kelce is in sync with Mahomes and drifts into open territory once Mahomes extends the play, which is often.
The Niners are a ball-control team, rushing the ball three-quarters of the time. They have exceptional blocking up the middle and speedster Mostert was a late-season find, exploding through holes faster than his predecessor Matt Breida.