When evaluating the New York Giants, who finished 4-12 in 2019, the temptation would be to assign them the rebuilding label and move on.
But wait. NJ online sportsbooks enlarge the discussion, and the Giants already have talking points.
In the offseason, the NFL team hired head coach Joe Judge from the New England Patriots and offensive coordinator Jason Garrett from the Dallas Cowboys.
With quarterback Daniel Jones in his second year, the team will be interesting and probably better.
Let’s look at Big Blue from several NFL betting areas, courtesy of the top five sportsbook apps in NJ.
Will the Giants win the 2021 Super Bowl?
DraftKings Sportsbook puts them at 80-1, so it’s not considered likely at all.
|Super Bowl LV odds||DraftKings||FanDuel||Fox Bet||BetMGM||PointsBet|
|New York Giants||+8000||+8500||+8000||+10000||+10000|
The feeling is that the culture needs to be rebuilt first. Judge and Garrett should at least be able to accomplish that step.
There will be a sense of renewal for the Giants and a team pointing in the right direction.
So no Super Bowl win for the NY Giants this year.
Will the NY Giants win the NFC championship?
Not in 2020. With the San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints, and Green Bay Packers in front of them, it will be a while before a team that is “rebuilding” can reach the front of the pack.
|NFC Championship odds||DraftKings||FanDuel||Fox Bet||BetMGM|
|New York Giants||+4000||+4000||+4000||+5000|
They are 40-1 at DraftKings, for example. But once you narrow down into the division, the NFC East, the Giants get into the discussion.
Can the Giants win the NFC East?
Maybe. But a lot of stars have to align perfectly for the Giants to win the NFC East division in 2020.
DraftKings says +1000 or 10-1. That’s not too remote, and it’s a starting point for where fans and bettors think they can take a step up.
|NFC East odds||DraftKings||FanDuel||Fox Bet||BetMGM||PointsBet|
|New York Giants||+1000||+1500||+900||+900||+1400|
The Dallas Cowboys are -110 and the defending division champion Philadelphia Eagles are +140 at DraftKings. The Giants and the former Washington Redskins (now known as the Washington Football Team) at +1300 are far back.
But the Giants played division foes tough last year.
Will the Giants reach the NFL Playoffs?
Let’s just say that’s a longshot as well.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Giants at +380 for yes and -550 for no — an accurate reading for a 4-12 team trying to move forward.
Here is an interesting angle considering the Giants and every other team you consider, both for futures and in-game betting.
Not much separates the haves and have-nots in the NFL. Of the 32 teams, a full 12 had records between 9-7 and 7-9 last year. A 9-7 makes the playoffs. A 7-9 team fires its coach.
All it takes is a good work ethic and a few bounces to move up. Improvements do happen. The Buffalo Bills went from 6-10 in 2018-19 to 10-6 last year.
The Giants should go forward this year. The only question is: how far?
New York Giants: 2019 vs. 2020
Johnny Avello, the director of race and sportsbook operations for DraftKings, told NJ Gambling Sites last week that the Giants historically provide betting interest by virtue of being able to go on sustained runs of fielding good teams.
The Giants’ first job this year will be to avoid self-destructing.
What killed the G-Men last year? Points allowed, and by their own had.
At 451 points, they were second-worst in the conference to the Carolina Panthers at +470. Every NFC team that allowed more than 400 points did not make the post-season last year.
That list included the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 449, the Redskins at 435 and the Detroit Lions with 423 points.
But let’s look a little deeper at the total between the Giants and the Seahawks, who did make the playoffs. Seattle allowed 398 points and went 11-5. That’s just 53 points accounting for a difference of seven wins between these two teams.
Across 16 games, that’s an average of just under 4.5 points a game the Giants would need to improve in order to reach Seattle’s points-against total.
Is that possible? Absolutely. Most of the 53-point difference comes from strip-sack fumbles that led directly to opponents’ points against the Giants last year.
The turnovers dramatically changed games.
Remember the Monday Night Football game vs. Dallas?
In November 2019, the Giants were deep in Dallas Cowboys territory, seeking a covering score when a fumble led to a long return for a TD in the final seconds.
Under bettors fumed because the crazy TD changed the totals outcome. But FanDuel brought them oxygen with one of its patented Good Karma payouts two days later. That’s a rebate from a bad beat and this one had been bad.
Quarterback Jones can cut the mistakes by half or by three quarters. The fumbles were the result of indecision, caused by holding the ball up by his ear a couple of seconds too long.
Even if he took a sack or dumped the ball off, Jones could improve significantly by what he does not allow.
He should dump the ball off more anyway. There’s a superstar in his backfield named Saquon Barkley. Less will be more for the Giants if Jones utilizes Barkley out in the flat. That strategy would remove Jones’ hesitation and put the ball in the hands of a back who can rip off big gains.
The Giants played all of their division foes tough last year and were in fourth-quarter position to win at least four games they lost. A nudge upward, and they are relevant.
Oh and keep an eye on the chemistry between Judge and Garrett, who was a head coach for Dallas last year while Judge was an assistant in New England. That mix does not always work.
AP Photo/Adam Hunger