Odds boosts remain a popular NFL betting tool heading into Week 15.
At the least, they eliminate the vig, providing wagering value.
The boosts get an early start this week, with one game on Thursday and two on Saturday.
Although the list will increase closer to kickoff, including Sunday games, here are some early NJ sports betting considerations.
High-scoring Thursday night affair
Fox Bet NJ jumps out of the gate, boosting both teams to score in each quarter from +400 to +500 for the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers game.
This prop just hit on Monday Night Football, when the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens delivered 89 points.
What makes the prop worth pondering, besides the price, is the Raiders’ style of play. They have an excellent offense and a Swiss cheese defense full of holes. Derek Carr of Las Vegas and Justin Herbert of Los Angeles have a chance to light it up in this one.
This is always one of the most intriguing and lucrative props. The game needs to remain close, field goals need to be relevant and you have to catch a break in a quarter in which a team may only touch the ball once.
The perception is that these teams will march up and down the field. The over-under is 53 at Fox Bet, the highest total this week.
There is an interesting cross-reference on this angle. In its custom bet section, Fox Bet lists the prop of each team getting two touchdowns and one field goal for the game as -188. That prop was more than +400 for the Philadelphia Eagles last week against the New Orleans Saints, indicating that NJ online sportsbooks expect a shootout here.
Josh Jacobs to score in the first quarter has been boosted to +500. The Raiders running back is an excellent choice as an anytime touchdown threat wherever you play, and it often pays even money or a little higher. First touchdown and first-quarter bets are always risky because they unfold in a limited time frame, but that’s why they pay well.
More on Chargers-Raiders showdown
FanDuel Sportsbook has an aggressive perspective regarding the Thursday Night game: Keep it coming with the points.
It is offering an enhanced payout from +190 to +240 for the Raiders to win the game outright and for the total to hit 55 or more. That’s slightly more than the over-under number of 53.5.
If you like this prop, it seems logical to separately play the over in this game, a regular bet not connected with the boosts. If the offenses hit big but the Raiders don’t win, you are at least covered.
Hard to ignore Davante Adams in Week 15
On Saturday, the best opportunity in the Carolina Panthers–Green Bay Packers game involves Packers receiver Davante Adams. For him to score a touchdown and the Packers to win has been boosted from -120 to +100 at Fox Bet. It’s not a big payoff, but it wipes out the vig and then some, changing odds from laying 6-5 to getting even money.
Some players will jump on this for a large bet, depending on what they can get for Adams as an anytime scorer. Bettors can’t touch the moneyline, -400.
This is one wager in which the size of one’s bet may determine its appeal. The larger the bankroll, the better.
🚨 BAD BEAT REFUND 🚨
Losing your bet on a last second safety isn't exactly a great way to end the night… We know.
— FanDuel Sportsbook (@FDSportsbook) December 15, 2020
How about bad beat boosts?
FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbook have both addressed the final-play fiasco of the Baltimore Ravens’ 42-37 triumph over the Cleveland Browns on Monday night. Both involved priming the pump with refunds, keeping bettors from that game engaged rather than possibly enraged.
For tortured Browns bettors, their team was looking like an imminent moneyline win. Cleveland was leading 35-34 and Baltimore down to its final offensive play. However, the final result ended up being a 47-42 bad beat at +3. The daggers were a field goal allowed with two seconds left and a crazy lateral-fest resulting in a safety on the final play. And it radically changed betting fortunes.
FanDuel refunded all pre-live, straight spread bets placed on the Browns +3, +3.5 and +4.5 from the game. The total refund was $750K and appeared in customer’s accounts in site credit.
DraftKings has a promotion good through Thursday evening for anyone having played Cleveland + 3, +3.5, +4 and +4.5.
The bad beat promo is available via the promotions page. Here ae some of the potential rewards:
- $50 free bet
- $100 free bet
- $1,000 free bet
- $25,000 DK dollars.
Some New Jersey DraftKings customers have reported getting $100 on a free bet after wagering only $15 on the game.
A case like this becomes a no-brainer. If that subsequent free bet hits, a bad break will have turned into good fortune. Some gamblers may try to ensure this by taking the Pittsburgh Steelers on the moneyline against the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Monday Night Football game closes out the Week 15 schedule. Pittsburgh (11-2) won the first meeting against Cincinnati (2-10-1) convincingly, 36-10.
But no matter which game you play, the refund or promo turns losing bets into pushes. Plus, it enables the money to be placed into other wagers while validating the key psychological component of “I was robbed.”
Do we hear more Week 15 free bets?
PointsBet NJ bookends the Week 15 schedule with a pair of free-bet enticements.
Tonight’s Chargers-Raiders and Monday’s Steelers-Bengals contests are part of what’s termed a risk-free offer.
Make an in-play moneyline wager on the underdog in each game. If that team loses, the bettor will be refunded up to $50 in free bets. So Chargers and Bengals bettors, this applies to you.
Bettors will wager $50 on the dogs and receive either an upset win or the $50 free bet. Check the PointsBet app for complete details. Be sure to play the freebie within the time frame, usually one week.
The free bet refund must be used on another in-play event.
This promotion particularly entices money from Cincinnati Bengals bettors, who bet a prohibitive dog, +550. A key for Bengals backers is to have an idea what free bet you’d like to use next week before making this play.
Photo by Associated Press