Great betting expectations surround the New York Mets.
As they prepare for three season-opening road games against the Washington Nationals, the Mets have a high premium built into their wagering odds.
New Jersey online sports bettors might examine them even more closely when the Mets continue their road swing next week at the Philadelphia Phillies.
In stock-market terms, New York Mets bettors buy high.
— New York Mets (@Mets) March 30, 2021
Before the Mets take the field Thursday night (first pitch 7:09 p.m.), here is an NJ sports beting breakdown of Mets 2021 odds.
New York Mets vs. World Series Favorites
This team went 26-34, the equivalent of a 71-win full season last year. Now armed with some off-season pickups, they are expected to win 20 more. That’s a big ask.
Major sportsbooks nonetheless tout them for potential post-season honors.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, the Mets are +1000 to win the World Series, tied for fifth overall with the Atlanta Braves.
The defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers lead the way at +350.
Here are some of the other top contenders:
- New York Yankees +550
- San Diego Padres +800
- Chicago White Sox+850
- Minnesota Twins +2000
To win the National League pennant, the Mets are +525. The Dodgers are the +175 chalk
Credit this lofty forecast to playing in the nation’s biggest market. When the Mets are respectable, they are a “public team,” just as the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Lakers are to West Coast gamblers.
The World Series and pennant odds won’t change much in the near future. But some wagers must be made before the season’s first pitch.
New York Mets and total wins
This fun wager provides ramifications for every game of the season.
DraftKings has the Mets’ over-under season win totals at 90.5 with odds of -129 for the over and +103 for the under. Gamblers support the over, 75%-25%.
In this wager, “over” bettors favor the William Hill prop and “under
bettors take the 91 at Fan Duel.
Mets created off-season excitement
So what changed for this team?
New owner Steve Cohen, a billionaire, spent a barrage of bucks and snared two impact players from the Cleveland Indians.
The Mets obtained Francisco Lindor, a terrific power-hitting shortstop, and their fans began salivating. Lindor hit 103 home runs between 2017 and 2019. Getting power numbers from a defense-first position is a monster grab.
DraftKings listed him as one of the top picks for league MVP. Lindor is +1200, while the leaders are Mookie Betts of the Dodgers and Juan Soto of the Nationals, both +750.
Who else is at +1200? Freddie Freeman of the Braves, who won the award last season.
Lindor joins a team that led the majors with a .272 average last season. The rich get richer.
Pitcher Carlos Carrasco was the other major pickup.
He has been a solid player for a decade, but does he have the stuff to be the No. 2 starter?
Before answering that question, there are some factors to consider. He has never won 20 games nor posted an ERA below 3.00 when making 30 or more starts. Carrasco comes to the National League, which will help his numbers, but he’s also 34 and recently hampered by a hamstring injury.
However, he seems o be heading in the right direction as the Mets get closer to opening day.
— SNY (@SNYtv) March 29, 2021
So will he boom or bust?
The answer will impact Mets wagers
Injury notes: Noah Syndergaard, another great pitcher, is expected back by the summer. This will help.
Pistol Pete back on the board
Some additional props involve Mets mainstays.
Pete Alonso, who showed that his slugging ability was no fluke last year, is one of the favorites to lead the National League in homers. He has an attractive, price of +1100, shared with Ronald Acuna Jr. of the Braves and Millville Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels. They are considered tri-favorites at DraftKings.
Alonso returns +1200 for the same prop at FanDuel.
Alonso was a surprise league home-run leader in 2019, with a whopping 53. He notched 16 in the 60-game season last year, equating to 44 in a full season.
DraftKings has an over-under prop for Alonso at 41.5 homers. The over pays +105 and the under is -130.
Jacob deGrom in a class by himself
Jacob deGrom is one of the elite arms in Major League Baseball.
DraftKings made him the +425 to win the Cy Young Award. Never mind that Trevor Bauer, now of the Dodgers, captured the crown last season.
Bauer is the second pick at +700.
It’s likely that Bauer’s performance against the weak NL Central, as a member of the Cincinnati Reds last season, influenced these odds.
Bauer now must face the loaded Padres, and others, as a member of the Dodgers. And he won’t begin as the staff ace, which could shave some starts.
Jacob deGrom has been lights out for the last three years.
In 2018 and 2019, he won the Cy Young Award. He posted electrifying numbers like a 1.70 ERA in 2018, 2.43 in 2019 and used 2020 to conclude three straight seasons with a WHIP (baserunners per nine innings) under 1. That’s Hall of Fame territory.
Strikeout totals from deGrom, 269 and 255 the last two seasons, leads to another prop.
And it’s a ding-dong battle of New York’s finest, at DraftKings. deGrom and Gerrit Cole of the Yankees are +450, with Shane Bieber of the Cleveland Indians at +650, to lead the majors in strikeouts.
This looks like a season-long shootout between deGrom and Cole, who had an eye-popping 326 strikeouts in 2019 for the Houston Astros.
But the Yankees don’t like extending their starting pitchers past seven innings. That will impact this bet.
Here’s one more from DraftKings. If Cole leads the majors in wins, it’s +900. However, deGrom, the king of hard luck, is +1200. Good breaks are needed, but these are some nice payouts.
It’s going to be some season. It’s a betting bonanza. And besides individual props, major Mets improvement has been baked into the lines.
Will it happen?
AP Photo/Lynne Sladky