When it comes to The Match IV, it doesn’t matter who throws a better aerial between Phil Mickelson and Bryson DeChambeau.
But it does matter to New Jersey online sports bettors which NFL star – Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers – can get closer to the pin from 175 yards out. Or if either can drain a putt in the Match IV, a celebrity golf event unfolding July 6 at 5 p.m. ET from the breathtaking Moonlight Basin course in Big Sky, Mt.
Brady is teamed with Mickelson and Rodgers with DeChambeau. It will be televised by TNT.
More importantly, New Jersey online gamblers have a potpourri of betting options from DraftKings Sportsboook. New betting odds and choices will emerge closer to the first tee shot, but there’s already a strong menu.
NJ sports betting props for The Match
Unlike a typical PGA golf betting event such as The Open taking place later this month, The Match is a one-day prop wagering smorgasbord. Here is a small sampling of what’s on the DraftKings menu (odds are as of late Friday afternoon):
To win The Match:
- DeChambeau and Rodgers -167
- Mickelson and Brady +125
First-hole winner (tie equals no bet):
- DeChambeau-Rodgers, -125
- Mickelson-Brady -106
First team to go 1 up:
- DeChambeau-Rodgers -137
- Mickelson-Brady +105
First team to go 2 up:
- DeChambeau-Rodgers -159
- Mickelson-Brady +115
Serious chalk players, who are comfortable laying major juice on outcomes they feel strongly about. will closely consider the leader after 3 holes. DeChambeau and Rodgers are -134 while Mickelson and Brady are +100.
If we look at the leader after six holes, the odds remain relatively the same. DeChambeau and Rodgers are– 137 while Mickelson and Brady come in at+105.
Bettors also have the option of wagering on which pairing will be leading after nine, 12, or 15 holes.
Ways to improve betting odds with The Match
A chalk player will gain more favorable betting odds taking DeChambeau and Rodgers at six and nine-hole junctures, as opposed to laying -182 for the whole match.
If DeChambeau and Rodgers are indeed the better team, that factor will likely emerge by the end of nine holes.
At least that’s the angle going in.
The players have enhanced the promotion with tongue-in-cheek chiding. Rodgers may start cracking jokes about Brady’s golf game. However, don’t be surprised if Brady starts remarking on Green Bay passing up of a potential game-tying touchdown in last year’s NFL Playoffs.
Remember, Green Bay elected to kick a field goal late in their respective teams’ NFC Championship Game last season.
Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers won that one, and later the Super Bowl.
The odds say the golf summit will be different.
Basic rules for The Match IV
Pros will tee off from the rear tees and the NFL stars will hit from the forward tees.
Each player will tee off and then the players will swap balls for the second shot. After those second shots, each team will determine the best ball and alternate shots from there on out until the hole is finished.
The best score wins the hole and tied holes are halved with no carryover. Play goes on until one team leads by more holes than are remaining.
For example, if one team goes up by four holes with three to play, The Match is over.
The course was designed by golf legend Jack Nicklaus and has several unique characteristics including a par-5, 777-yard 17th hole.
Key NJ sports betting strategy
Can the NFL stars drive the ball well enough to bring second-shot management into play?
If one player flubs a tee shot or hits it in the water, the team will take the tee shot from the pro.
But if Brady or Rodgers hit the tee shot well enough, the pro can be hitting the approach shot into the green. This would set up the birdie chance.
Or, if either NFL player is considered a good bet to put the ball on the green from a distance of say, 150-175 yards out, then the pro can take the putt to look for the birdie.
Brady’s record seven Super Bowl rings will not help him here.
Nor will Rodgers’ three NFL MVP awards and one Super Bowl title. Both need to apply their fine touch pinpoint accuracy around the green.
Weighing the PGA pros versus NFL QBs
Johnny Avello, the director of race and sportsbook operations for DraftKings, told NJ Gambling Sites “This boils down to how good the athlete is because the pros are the pros.”
“I don’t care who Phil is playing, if he is 150 yards out, I would not bet the other guy to get closer to the pin,” said Avello. “You know what the pros will give you. You are not sure with the athletes.”
Mickelson has been the constant in this competition, as this is his fourth time competing in The Match. It has been a unique venue for “Lefty,” who energized a golf generation by becoming the oldest player to win a major, 50, at the PGA Championship in May.
The victory added more luster to The Match.
The first was a head-to-head battle between Mickelson and Tiger Woods in 2018. Mickelson prevailed after four playoff holes, taking home the $9 million prize purse, and bettors salivated about the coming age of golf wagering.
In The Match 2, “Lefty” partnered with Brady in 2020, losing by one hole to Woods and Peyton Manning.
Then there is last fall’s The Match 3 in which Mickelson and Charles Barkley prevailed over Manning and Stephen Curry. That was considered an upset.
“Charles Barkley is not a good golfer, but he was able to keep his shots in play.” Avello indicated. “Therefore, they were able to use a couple of those shots and that’s how they won the tournament.
“In the matchup before that, Peyton Manning totally outshot Tom Brady, who was all over the place.
“This is why Aaron Rodgers is a favorite coming into this. He has a lower handicap right now than Brady.
“But Brady likes being the dog. There will be some good money bet on Brady, I’ll tell you that right now.”
Why competitions like The Match work
The novelty golf realm began a few decades ago with the Skins game, in which top golfers sought major prizes awarded on each individual hole. The concept expanded to male-female teams and ultimately celebrities.
Most people can’t play golf well and will simply admire the pros. But many can play well enough to envision shooting rounds in the 80s, about where some professional athletes play if they had a little work.
Besides that, the event is altruistic. The Match 2, for example, raised $20 million for COVID-19 relief.
AP Photo/John Locher