If the NJ sports betting crowd is correct, the Philadelphia Eagles will be rolled by the Kansas City Chiefs Sunday at the Linc.
Do New Jersey gamblers want to wager into or against that trend?
Both teams oddly enter at 1-2. Combined, they have lost four straight games. Bettors could have retired had they seen a prop predicting this unlikely event and then played it before the season started.
Here are some emerging matchup and betting considerations before the Birds host the Chiefs and welcome back their former head coach Andy Reid.
Chiefs vs. Eagles odds at NJ sportsbooks
NJ bettors on Eagles’ penalty watch
There is urgency for the Eagles. Monday’s 41-21 blowout loss to the Dallas Cowboys leaves them one game (plus a head-to-head loss) behind Dallas atop the NFC East. The deficit will be two if the Eagles lose and Dallas wins as a favorite against the visiting Carolina Panthers.
However, no matter which team the Birds are playing. the penalties continue to have a crippling effect. Maybe you’ve heard about a record the Eagles don’t want, but may get.
They have 35 penalties through three games, an average of almost 12 a game. The record of 163 is held by the 2011 Raiders, who went 8-8 and finished out of the playoffs
Philadelphia is on pace to notch 192 penalties through the 16-game comparison with the Raiders and to surpass 200 in the new 17-game season.
This is coaching. This is technique and repetition. Elite teams rarely make these types of mistakes.
Containing Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs
Teams that have been successful apply heavy pressure from the tackles and stay with the defensive coverage long enough to prevent him from extending plays. If Mahomes gets in trouble and scrambles out of the pocket, that’s often when plays start, not finish.
It’s a tough job, but one way or another, it’s a big key to this game.
Chiefs -7 is seventh heaven for NJ bettors
According to DraftKings Sportsbook figures, 98% of the gamblers back the Chiefs at -7, the most lopsided percentage of any game on its schedule.
Kansas City bettors are not even daunted by an unattractive -310 price on the moneyline. Ninety-five percent of the gamblers have backed that, meaning that this game is being linked to parlays (more on how to use that below). For the brave Eagles backers, the moneyline was +245 on Thursday.
Most people expect a shootout too. At DraftKings, 71 % of the bettors are backing the over of 54.
How to wager into a lopsided line at NJ sportsbooks
Two words: moneyline parlays.
Link two or more teams together. How do you make money from Kansas City -310? Add some other bets to the mix for a potentially higher payout that carries more risk.
The Baltimore Ravens were a classic example of this last week. They were -8 against the Detroit Lions and a heavy favorite to simply win the game. Many gamblers used them as a moneyline anchor for other bets. The Ravens were about to lose when Justin Tucker hit an NFL record 66-yard game-winning field goal bounced off the uprights and over the crossbar.
A Ravens loss would have burned all the picks included on the parlay tickets. And the books would have rejoiced. But the Baltimore bettors escaped.
As that ball hit the crossbar and caromed up, millions of dollars hinged on which direction the ball would fall.
No wonder they call it gambling.
A milder bet: the two-team teaser
Bettors can adjust the lines on a couple of games and put them together, obtaining favorable conditions in exchange for needing to hit both wagers.
Many gamblers like to move the line about a touchdown’s worth.
Here’s just one of many for-instances. Let’s place it on the Eagles and New York Giants.
At DraftKings, one could take the Eagles from +7 to +14 and take the New York Giants game from over 42 to over 36.5.
The tease effect: The Eagles +14 on its own is -265. The Giants over 36.5 on its own is -220. Bad individual betting odds.
The combined ticket, however, is +100, even money.
Gamblers can take this in many forms, building two, three, or four-team parlays with the same conditions. The more teams that are played, the more difficult it is to obtain a sweep. But on each bet, the gambler has obtained a much better chance.
Hurts will try to get his numbers
The Jalen Hurts passing touchdowns prop is +1.5. Over is +110 and the under is -145.
The Chiefs have been involved in shootouts and teams usually have to pass on them in the fourth quarter. The Eagles QB did get his two and cashed this ticket for bettors, who got a present with him still playing while the Eagles trailed 41-14.
Passing and rushing yards.
Hurts is 293.5 at -115 either way. He eclipsed 350 last week against Dallas. There’s a little juiced baked into this at -115, but this is still one that bettors will look at.
If we add the Eagles wide receivers to the mix, Quez Watkins over-under receptions at over 2.5 at +140.
The disappearance of DeVonta Smith and Watkins, the team’s fastest receiver, prompted a flood of criticism throughout the week. Watkins must be used more. Is this the week?
Extensive Chiefs vs. Eagles pops menu at Caesars Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook has an extensive prop menu for first and anytime touchdown scorers.
Here are the odds for first TD scorer:
- Travis Kelce +480
- Tyreek Hill +625
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire +675
- Miles Sanders +625
- Kenneth Gainwell +2000
Here are some odds for anytime scorer:
- Kelce -150
- Hill -114
- Edwards-Helaire +126
- Sanders +130
- Gainwell +320
Will running game odds appeal to NJ bettors?
One would expect Sanders and Gainwell to be more involved in the offense after the Eagles called three, count em three, backfield runs against the Cowboys. (Check out Bill Gelman’s analysis of this week’s episode of Why Eagles Why. The podcast features weekly commentary from Bill, Pete Amato, and myself).
On the other side of the ball, Edwards- Helaire is getting betting love as a rushing and combined rushing-receiving prop. The belief is that after the Cowboys gashed the Eagles with its running game to about 5.5 yards per carry, the Chiefs will try to get Edwards-Helaire a prominent player.
Otherwise, Kelce, the Chiefs tight end, is an excellent yardage and anytime-scoring threat. And one can never forget the bomb to Hill sitting in the Chiefs’ playbook.
AP Photo/Ed Zurga