There is serious. There’s zany. There is insightful. And there is frivolous.
From all angles, New Jersey online bettors prepare to cut it loose one more time at Super Bowl LVI.
The final gambling feast of the NFL campaign occurs Sunday at 6:30 p.m. from SoFi Stadium in California, when the Los Angeles Rams literally host the Cincinnati Bengals. The game is on the Rams’ home field.
Super Bowl LVI Odds At NJ Sportsbooks
What better day, the final game of the NFL season, to unleash a barrage of spread, moneyline, total, props, and even Hail Mary props?
And if all the handicapping gets too intense, there’s always the coin flip at -105 on each side at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Start with the bread-and-butter stuff. The serious element involves the spread, moneyline, and totals.
The Bengals received late-week betting support, gaining 59% of all DraftKings handle at +4, down from +4.5 early in the week.
The over 48.5 is getting 57% of bets and the Bengals lead the moneyline parade at 58% on a line of +170.
“You expected the Bengals to have the lead in the moneyline, but what has surprised me is the amount of Bengals money on the side,” Johnny Avello, the director of race and sportsbook operations for DraftKings, told NJGS.
“I do expect a lot of the Rams money to come in late. Could this thing get up as high as 4.5? I think it could. Would we be surprised if it went as low as 3.5? I don’t think so. But that’s the range we expect this to end up.”
MVP odds for Super Bowl LVI
Avello touted newcomers bringing fresh blood to the prop circuit.
The variety starts with the game MVP props. Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has the lowest posted odds of +100, but the bettors are teeing up some long shots.
Aaron Donald, at +1600, earned 20.3% of the revenue as of Thursday.
Joe Burrow, the Bengals quarterback, has 20% of the dough at +200 betting odds.
Cooper Kupp weighed in with 13.8% of the money at +600. Next came Stafford at 8.6%.
Bengals’ kicker Evan McPherson, a perfect 12-for-12 in the postseason, gained 6% of the handle at odds of +13000. Bettors backing that angle figure the defenses will stiffen inside the red zone and that the kickers will decide it.
A tip for anyone considering McPherson: go to another section of the board. DraftKings has +6000 for any kicker, punter, or long snapper to win the MVP.
You might as well get odds like that. A kicker has never won a Super Bowl MVP. Quarterbacks dominate the category.
Here’s the rest of the top 10 with betting odds and percentage of money:
- Odell Beckham Jr. +2800, 4.8%.
- Ja’Marr Chase +1800, 4.6%
- Von Miller +4500, 4.4%
- Joe Mixon +4500, 4.2%
- Jalen Ramsey +10000, 3.1%
If anyone besides Burrow or Stafford win the MVP, this will be a strong payoff.
In a position prop, for example, DraftKings has +900 for any running back to claim the MVP and +250 for any receiver.
Betting the game total
The game total merits a close look. The public is backing the explosive nature of both teams, but there’s an interesting consideration.
The Bengals defense, not considered a top regular-season unit, has made a key interception in the waning moments of all three playoff victories. Two set up a winning score. One preserved a seven-point triumph.
The Rams held the Arizona Cardinals to 11 points and the San Francisco 49ers to 17 in two of their three victories. They are generally regarded as a strong defensive team.
“The first time you look at this game, you feel that the defenses are going to come up strong,” Avello said. “What you don’t know is if something happens in which the game gets away from one of these teams or you have a couple touchdowns in a row, etc.”
Here are a couple interesting categories bettors can weigh.
Will the final margin be over or under 8.5? It’s -110 either way. Essentially, you are getting both teams at +8.5. Anyone perceiving a tight contest would slam that one. But the books may not be expecting a close game, especially in light of another prop.
Will any team win the game with a field goal on the final play of regulation? It pays +500, a pretty good-sized long shot.
First instinct is yes, all these teams have done is get a field goal on the final play.
Actually, each team did it once. Cincinnati’s overtime field goal against the Kansas City Chiefs, which got it here, would be a loser on this bet.
Crossover Props At NJ Sportsbooks
How about the lighthearted side?
Avello touted some crossover props with other sports. Check the crossover sports specials.
What will be more, the Atlanta Hawks’ game total Sunday against the Boston Celtics, or Kupp’s receiving yards?
The Hawks average 111.9 points a game, making this a fair prop, -110 each way.
How about the Celtics giving Kupp 7.5 yards? You can really give yards? Yes, the prop is Boston total points vs. Kupp yards. Bettors can take Kupp +7.5 or Boston -7.5.
The Celtics average 108.4 points per game for those who want to track the prop.
Avello’s history of this prop goes back many years. He used to tie some props into the mutuels handle at Santa Anita for a particular race when he worked at Wynn in Las Vegas.
Caesars: The Squares Saga
Remember the 1986 Huey Lewis and the News hit, “Hip to be Square?” Well, it’s hip to be squares at Caesars, as the new form of Super Bowl wagering took off.
It was introduced in the first week of the game’s lead-up. Rather than take a random square and have the winning digits (the last number in each team’s score) assigned to that square, bettors can wager on whatever square they want.
Outside of spread, moneyline, and total, it has been the most popular betting market at Caesars Sportsbook for Sunday’s contest according to Craig Mucklow, it’s Vice President of Trading.
“The popularity for squares is head and shoulders above everything else,” Mucklow said. “It’s double the handle versus coin toss and 10 times more tickets as coin toss. It pays for people that want to bet a small dollar amount to try and get a big win. The average stake on this is $11.50.”
The lowest odds for any square at Caesars Sportsbook are +2200, or 22-1, for Rams 0-Bengals 7, Rams 7-Bengals 0, Rams 4-Bengals 7, and Rams 7-Bengals 4.
The Rams 3-Bengals 0 (+2500), Rams 0-Bengals 3 (+2500), Rams 7-Bengals 3 (+2600), Rams 0-Bengals 4, Rams 0-Bengals 6, and Rams 4-Bengals 0 (all +3000), round out the lowest-10 odds available.
Conversely, one square stands alone at the bottom of the board. The Rams 2-Bengals 2 brings up the rear at +250000, or 250-1, while four others are at +225000, or 225-1: Rams 8-Bengals 8, Rams 5-Bengals 1, Rams 5-Bengals 2, and Rams 9-Bengals 5.
The most popular square, by dollars, is Rams 4-Bengals 7, followed by Rams 7-Bengals 4, and Rams 7-Bengals 0. By tickets, Rams 4-Bengals 7 leads the way, with Rams 7-Bengals 4, and Rams 0-Bengals 7 close behind.
Even though they haven’t been the most popular, the long shots have still been generating attention.
“5-5 is the one we don’t want, that’s a $3 million liability right now,” Mucklow said.
So far, he’s riding with the percentages. It’s never happened.
(AP Photo/Kyusung Gong)