How do you handle an avalanche?
NASCAR racing and Bundesliga soccer bettors are among the first to juggle their bankrolls with a newly-emerging events glut.
Another opportunity — and challenge — await this weekend at New Jersey online sportsbooks, with both sports presenting extensive lineups.
NASCAR unfurls the Supermarket Heroes 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway on Sunday at 3:30 p.m. (televised on FS1).
Bundesliga, the German soccer league imported to the books during the COVID-19 crisis, presents a systematic, deeply-rooted European sport embraced by the New Jersey population.
The league has a big Saturday lineup, albeit with teams the public hasn’t followed. Some of its bigger weekend games unfold at FS1, too.
And to top it all off, there’s a Fox Bet deal for NASCAR fans that will serve up just enough intrigue.
Read on for all the highlights of what to bet on this busy weekend.
Fox Bet Supermarket Heroes special: $50 in free bets
First off, let’s talk about that Fox Bet deal.
Starting Friday, May 29 through Sunday, May 31, new players signing up at Fox Bet NJ can get $50 in free bets.
All they have to do is bet $25 on the Supermarket Heroes 500, and win or lose, the reward is $50.
Of course, new players must have made a deposit to qualify. And the promo bet must be your first bet.
But bottom line, there will be $50 in free bets in your account on Monday. It’s as simple as that.
NASCAR Supermarket Heroes 500
Now that we have you all fired up, let’s move on to the nitty-gritty details of Sunday’s big race.
This will help bettors decide where to focus during Sunday’s Supermarket Heroes race, aka the Food City 500.
For one, the favorites usually go off in the 5-1 neighborhood and the odds board doesn’t change much.
The top 10 is a good place to scout talent, regardless of the race. Here were the points leaders after Memorial Day weekend.
- Kevin Harvick
- Joey Logano
- Alex Bowman
- Chase Elliott
- Brad Keselowski
- Martin Truex Jr
- Ryan Blaney
- Denny Hamlin
- Kyle Busch
- Aric Almirola
Values and story lines in NASCAR betting
The drivers finishing in the top three will usually provide more than +100. Someone like Harvick in the top 10, however, forces you to lay odds.
This may appeal to a big-money player, oddly enough. It can resemble a horse-racing bettor going heavy on a favorite to show (third place or higher). The return is small, but the chance of a collection is high. The key is the leverage of the big bet, coupled with the high success probability.
Busch has often been the pre-race favorite upon NASCAR’s return but may be overbet. Through Memorial Day, he was often in the money without winning.
The reigning Cup Series champ may gain heavy play in the Supermarket Heroes race because he’s won this race the last two years. But Busch isn’t hitting on all cylinders yet.
This race will be a good barometer of where he’s at.
It’s also key to match the driver with the car when you consider prop bets involving either which manufacturer will deliver the winning vehicle or which driver of each brand.
Manufacturers have standings, too. Here’s how they are paired:
- Ford: 261 points (Harvick, Logano, Keselowski, Blaney, Almirola)
- Chevy: 236 points (Bowman, Elliott)
- Toyota: 236 points (Truex, Hamlin, Busch)
Recent NASCAR history worth noting, too
Matt Kinseth, who recently came out of retirement, won the Supermarket Heroes event in 2015.
Carl Edwards and Jimmy Johnson prevailed the next two years. The last two races have belonged to Busch.
Certain factors will impact the handicapping, too. Joe Gibbs Racing has prevailed in this race four of the last five years.
So has Toyota as the manufacturer. Chevy owns more wins in this event than its competitors, with 23, but Toyota is on the hot streak.
On the flip side, there’s Bundesliga betting
The Bundesliga is one of the top leagues in Europe.
It returned on May 16 to wagering fanfare and some of its bigger weekend games are shown on Fox. PlaySugarHouse Sportsbook offered extensive betting options in advance this week.
The league structure may provide a glimpse into wagering.
For over-under bettors, Bundesliga has averaged a shade over three goals per game since returning on May 16.
The league has 18 teams and a clear-cut demarcation of power.
Bayern Munich, which has won more championships than any team (28) sits atop the standings.
The group right behind includes:
- RB Leipzig
Bayern entered the week with the most goals scored, 80, in 27 games, essentially three per contest. It defeated top rival Dortmund 1-0 earlier this week, showing that it can play low-scoring affairs, too.
When leagues have been off, the scoring is often slightly higher right after they return and then slowly comes down. That has also happened here.
The worst defensive teams in the league allow just more than two goals per game. They include:
Bundesliga weekend games to watch for
How will that play out this weekend? Bayern is at Dusseldorf (Fox) on Saturday, at 12:30 p.m. The pure stats would suggest a chance of five goals being scored, if the game was played exactly to form, based on how many each team has tallied to date.
Compare that with what the over-under eventually becomes. If you see the total goals over-under at 3.5 or 4, there’s a lean to the over bet. If you see 4.5 or more, there is no perceived edge.
Another hunch may occur in the goal-differential department. Bayern is the class of the league with a differential of 52. It essentially wins by an average of two goals. That could come into play regarding a margin-of-victory line.
Most of the also-ran teams play each other Saturday. It will be interesting to see where those games end up. The first four are at 9:30 a.m. ET.
- Hertha Berlin takes on FC Augsburg
- Mainz battles TSG Hoffenheim
- Schalke 04 takes on Werder Bremen
- Vfl Wolfsburg battles Eintracht Frankfurt
- Bayern Munich goes against Fortuna Dusseldorf (12:30 p.m. FS1)
This is an unprecedented wagering feast in soccer.
Few gamblers win long term by betting on every event. But getting a feel for the circuit will help narrow the choices.